Alliance Analysis

Survivor Panama is now three episodes old and I thought I'd take a look at the alliances. At this point in the game it is foolish to think large alliances of more than 2 or 3 will hold up for the length of the contest.

La Mina
Dan (pictured, retired astronaught ) and Terry (retired Navy fighter pilot) - these two seem to have the tightest bond. However they are too similar and I'm afraid the others will eventually notice them. If one goes the other will really be out there alone.

Austin and Nick (pictured) - these two young guys are also similar to one another but less committed to their alliance (if they have one) than the two older men. These guys were in the middle between Dan & Terry and Misty & Sally. In the middle (aka the swing vote) is a tough spot to play. If you don't decide one way or the other you can become the target.

Misty and Sally (pictured) - now that Misty is gone Sally is in trouble. She should try to align with Ruth Ann and play the two pairs of men against each other. If you were any of the men who would you rather compete against (once the merge comes), two other guys or two women?

Ruth Ann (pictured) - she may not be in as much trouble as you think. I don't think she's considered a threat to win individual immunity but she holds her on in group challenges so she may be carried along until the merge. Still, she may be the next one to go on this tribe.

Casaya
This tribe is a basket case, it is tough to discern who's really in an alliance with whom. It seems Aras, Shane, Courtney and Danielle are in an alliance together. As Aras (pictured) said last night he's in an "alliance with three nut-balls." Shane called Courtney a "lunatic" and he should know because he is the craziest one out there. Shane seems manic-depressive; one minute he wants to go home, the next he's plotting against the others and occasionally he's just nuts. Did you like how he screamed last night about Shane's Thinking Seat? If it's just an act to win the game, then well played sir (and good luck with that).

That leaves Bobby (pictured), Cirie and Bruce. I don't think it would take much for the three of them to get Aras to join them, then they could get rid of the three nut-balls. If I were in their place then I would get rid of Courtney first. Shane's nuts but he performs well in challenges and Courtney is more of an irritant than Danielle. However as a viewer I'd like the young ladies in the bikinis to stay around a little longer.

Next Update:
Tonight or tomorrow Misty on Survivor Live.